How ERC Can Be Used for Predictive Risk — Not Just Occurrence Analysis

The response to my recent comparison of ERC and the ICAO 5x5 matrix was incredible, thank you to everyone who joined the discussion and shared perspectives on LinkedIn.

One point that came up often:

🗣️ “ERC is only for occurrences. ICAO 5x5 is for predictive risk.”

That’s a fair comment—if ERC is only used reactively. But that’s not the only way it can be applied.

ERC in Predictive Use: It’s All About Framing the Question

Traditionally, ERC (Event Risk Classification) evaluates how many layers of defense failed in a specific occurrence. But when used proactively, ERC asks a different question:

How likely are the existing defenses to fail?

This subtle shift transforms ERC from a post-event analysis tool into a forward-looking risk assessment method.

ERC as a Predictive Tool

By interpreting defense layers in vulnerability terms, ERC can be used to assess risk without relying on subjective likelihood estimates. This is especially valuable in complex, safety-critical environments like aviation.

Below is a graphic showing how ERC defense levels can be applied predictively, helping safety teams assess systemic weaknesses before an occurrence happens.

🛠️ How to Apply Predictive ERC in Practice

I’ve implemented predictive ERC methods in airline and CAMO settings across Europe with strong results.

Here’s how to make it work:

• Define defense levels clearly in your SMS manual or risk procedures.

• Use ERC proactively in hazard identification, change management, and safety assessments.

• Incorporate ERC language in risk review boards, safety action groups, and audits.

The result? A risk model that focuses on barrier integrity, not speculative probability.

Need Help Strengthening Your Safety System?

If you're looking to:

• Strengthen your risk classification approach

• Prepare for compliance audits

• Update SMS manuals or risk procedures

• Implement predictive safety methods

I offer aviation SMS consulting, documentation support, and auditing services across Europe.

Let’s connect.