Looking Into the Crystal Ball: Predictive Hazard Identification

There are three main ways to identify hazards in aviation: Predictive, Proactive, and Reactive. Each has its role, and together they give us foresight, insight, and hindsight into safety.

Hazard identification starts with prediction. In this article, we focus on the predictive method, the one that looks into the “crystal ball” to anticipate risks before they materialize.

Looking into the “crystal ball” of data: predictive hazard identification helps us spot tomorrow’s risks today.

What Is Predictive Hazard Identification?

Predictive hazard identification is about foreseeing tomorrow’s risks today. Instead of waiting for events to happen or relying only on what we observe in daily operations, predictive methods use data, trends, and structured foresight to highlight what could go wrong before it does.

Think of it as scanning the horizon: we may not see the hazard clearly yet, but the patterns tell us something is coming.

Management of Change (MoC)

One of the most powerful predictive tools is Management of Change.

Whenever an operator, for example, introduces a new aircraft type, opens a new route, signs a new contract, or changes procedures, there’s an increased risk of hidden hazards. By systematically analyzing the impact of these changes, safety teams can predict where issues might arise.

We wrote about this in our 23 June article, When Change Outpaces Safety. The lesson is clear: when change is faster than safety can keep up, hazards slip through. A structured MoC process ensures predictive thinking is built into every transition.

Flight Data Monitoring – Often Misunderstood

Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) is sometimes mistakenly seen as reactive. After all, it analyzes what already happened on previous flights. But in reality, FDM is a predictive method.

Here’s why:

• FDM looks for trends across many flights.

• It identifies patterns of risk that haven’t yet led to an incident.

• It enables management to take corrective action before an event occurs.

For example, if repeated unstable approaches are flagged by FDM, this is a predictive signal. It allows an operator to adjust training, brief crews, or review procedures before the hazard escalates into an accident.

Why Predictive Hazard Identification Matters

• Resilience: Predictive methods help organizations build resilience by detecting weak signals early.

• Evidence-based decisions: They turn data and structured analysis into foresight, strengthening risk assessments.

• Resource allocation: They guide where to focus training, maintenance, or procedural improvements, before the hazard becomes costly.

Looking Ahead

Predictive hazard identification gives us foresight. On Wednesday, we’ll look at proactive hazard identification, the real-time practices that keep hazards visible in daily operations. And on Friday, we’ll close the series with reactive hazard identification, how we learn from what has already happened.

👉 Discussion question: How do you use predictive tools like Flight Data Monitoring or Management of Change in your operation?