Management of Change: A Predictive Tool, Not Just a Checklist

Change in aviation is constant. New contracts, new routes, new technology, new people, nothing stays still for long. But with each change comes the risk that hazards will quietly grow, hidden from view until they manifest in operations.

Structured change management keeps operations on the safe path.

In June, I wrote about what happens when change outpaces safety, the snowball effect that builds when short cuts compound and unmanaged risk spreads across scheduling, crews, and oversight. Today, I want to take a different angle.

Management of Change (MoC) is more than an SMS requirement. It is one of the strongest predictive hazard identification methods we have. 

As I wrote in last week’s article on Predictive Hazard Identification, prediction is about structured foresight. MoC is foresight applied to operational decisions.

Why MoC Is Predictive?

Too often, MoC is seen as a form to complete or a box to tick. But at its core, MoC asks the most important predictive question:

👉 “If we make this change, what hazards could it introduce, and how do we mitigate them before they appear?”

By forcing organizations to pause and reflect before action, MoC transforms change from a reactive scramble into a predictive process. It ensures that risks are managed before the first flight departs, the first procedure is rolled out, or the first contract begins.

Key Triggers for MoC

There are certain changes in aviation where a structured MoC process should always apply:

• New contracts – ACMI projects, seasonal agreements, or wet-lease operations.

• New routes or bases – including changes in local regulation, infrastructure, or environment.

• New aircraft type – different systems, performance, and training requirements.

• Major procedural change – updates to manuals, SOPs, or workflows.

• Organizational change – restructuring, leadership transitions, or changes in oversight responsibility.

Each of these situations introduces invisible hazards. Without MoC, they remain hidden until someone stumbles across them in day-to-day operations.

Common Pitfalls

Even when MoC is formally in place, it can fail if:

• It is treated as a tick-box exercise instead of a predictive tool.

• Communication and training are skipped in the rush to implement.

• The process is carried out too late, after decisions have already been made.

These pitfalls turn MoC into paperwork instead of protection.

Making MoC Work

To unlock the predictive value of MoC, organizations must:

• Enforce a clear process that triggers MoC at the right time.

• Integrate MoC into management decisions, not just the safety department.

• Allocate time for readiness reviews, training, and feedback.

• Build leadership buy-in — safety must never be traded for speed.

When these elements are in place, MoC becomes a living part of operations, not a forgotten form.

Conclusion

Change is not the enemy. In fact, aviation thrives on adaptation. But unmanaged change introduces hidden hazards, risks that only surface when it is already too late.

👉 Before your next contract, route, or procedural change, ask: Are we truly managing change or just reacting to it?